Pittsburgh vs. St. Louis
We previewed the Bucs previously, but with their win Tuesday they are set up to have A.J Burnett throw game one, followed by Gerrit Cole, and then Francisco Liriano on Sunday with a travel day on Thursday. This lines up as a positive thing for Pittsburgh, as Liriano will throw at home where he is dominate. Although trusting Burnett is a crapshoot despite his big game experience in Florida and New York, there are outings where he just doesn’t seem to have his control. He has faced the Cardinals six times this season, going 4-2 in those games. Looking deeper, the two losses were at Busch Stadium, where game one will be played, with the four wins coming at PNC Park. Cole has not faced the Cards this season. With his mid to upper 90’s fastball I look for the Pirates to win this game on a strong performance from the rookie.
St. Louis comes into the division series feeling rested and good about themselves. Manager Mike Matheny has done a masterful job of stepping in Tony LaRussa’s shoes and not tripping the team up. Also helping is the team’s top heavy pitching staff. Not only is ace Adam Wainright a Cy Young contender, he is the unquestioned leader of the staff, following him in the rotation will be Lance Lynn and Shelby Miller. The team may choose to start Jake Westbrook if they are leading the series, as opposed to bringing back better arms on short rest as he has post season experience. Joe Kelly projects as the long relief man should any game get ugly early. In the back end of the bullpen closer Edward Mujica has been up and down this season, but can be dominating. The middle relief is the strength of the team. Trevor Rosenthal has 108 K’s in 75.1 innings pitched this season throwing upper 90’s fastballs by batters. John Axford was acquired from Milwaukee for additional reinforcements and could be the 7th inning guy. Randy Choate is the late inning lefty specialist which shouldn’t encourage confidence from Cards fans. The defense is a top four unit in all of MLB, and can be counted on in tight situations, meaning you shouldn’t see any defensive replacements in the late innings.
At the plate the Cardinals boast a bevy of hitting stalwarts. Matt Carpenter came out of nowhere to lead MLB in hits this season. He hits at the top of the lineup that boasts the third best on base percentage in MLB. Yadier Molina and Carlos Beltran hit behind Carpenter in the lineup, and are solid in the clutch hitters. The real catalyst for the lineup is Matt Holliday, who is getting over a sore back just in time to have a modest hitting streak going into the post season. The only stumbling block is the foot injury to Allen Craig. Craig was in the running for NL MVP before his Lisfranc injury sidelined him. If he is unable to play the Cards will be ripe for an upset in the NLDS.
That said, they should still be able to handle the Pirates, who they are only 6-10 against this season, but in a 5 game series I think they have the edge, especially with Francisco Liriano not available until game three at home. This is going to be a great rivalry series as the teams know each other very well being from the same division.
Prediction: Cardinals 3-2.
Atlanta Braves vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Atlanta has had a soft ride into the playoffs as they haven’t been seriously challenged in the division since early summer. Their pitching looks to stack up well with the other teams in terms of depth, but could be in some trouble against top heavy rotations. They will send Kris Medlen to the mound in the opening contest at home as he is the only Braves starter with post season experience. At home this season he is 9-6 with a 2.26 era. He faced the Dodgers once this season in LA and did not allow a run. He will have to be lights out again as the rest of the rotation is green. Mike Minor, Paul Maholm, and Julio Tehran project as the starters. With a team ERA of 3.18, good for best in the NL, and a WHIP of 1.20, which is 2nd in the league, the pitching seems to be the stabilizing force to this team’s long term success. Now is the time when the loss of Tim Hudson earlier in the season with a broken ankle will affect their title hopes. His experience and leadership will be missed on the field. The bullpen is vaunted and strong at the backend with Craig Kimbrel closing games, however it is not as dominate as in recent years in the 7th and 8th innings due to injuries. This could be the Braves Achilles heel in the postseason.
The bats are formidable throughout the lineup. With Jason Heyward coming off the DL just in time to man the leadoff spot where he has flourished this season, the top of the order does not stop until it hits the bottom. Even with BJ Upton and his on base struggles at the end of the lineup ,he is more than covered as guys like Freddie Freeman and Justin Upton provide thump, while Chris Johnson and his small ball mentality make up for it. This is a lineup that has not been tested, and will face the pending Cy Young winner for the Dodgers possibly twice in a best of five series. This should be the best series of the round as the teams are evenly matched in terms of depth and overall talent.
The Dodgers have been ordinary save for a 42-8 stretch in the middle of the season. Manager Don Mattingly survived a dreadful start to the season which nearly got him fired. Featured player Matt Kemp has gone through an injury marred campaign and is again shut down after reinjuring himself in a comeback attempt. This opened the door for phenom Yasiel Puig, who was called up June 22nd and they went on their run. The team is built around starters Clayton Kershaw and Zack Grienke. But the rotation offers more in Hun-Jin Ryu and midseason trade acquisition Ricky Nolasco. Their rotation is stronger than Atlanta’s, and the bullpen has been bolstered by Brian Wilson returning from Tommy John surgery to give them a lockdown 8th inning option to go along with Kenley Jansen in the 9th. The lineup without Kemp has kept chugging along with uber consistent Adrian Gonzalez leading the way. With Puig and his explosive talent at the top of the lineup, and Hanley Ramirez providing thump behind him, this lineup can be feast or famine. Carl Crawford, Andre Ethier, and A.J Ellis contribute to this with a team average in the top half of the league, and a middling on base percentage. They will certainly need trade import Michael Young to provide a spark. Young is a playoff veteran and can provide leadership to a team that can get too hyped up (Puig) and make mistakes.
Overall I look for the Dodgers to steal a win in Atlanta, but ultimately fall short in the series 3-2 due to a more consistent Braves lineup.
