Over the next month we will bring you a division by division preview for the upcoming Major League Baseball season, leading up to opening day.

With spring training heating up in the Cactus and Grapefruit Leagues, it’s time to look at who went where and projected outlooks for each team.  The season gets underway in Australia as the Dodgers play a series with Arizona beginning March 22. 

The rest of the league gets underway April 1st or soon thereafter.  There are still “name” free agents available as of this writing, mostly second rate pitchers who want to be paid like top tier players-Ervin Santana, Ubaldo Jimenez.  In addition to that, these players are tied to draft pick compensation should a team sign them. 

Last year Kyle Lohse waited into February to sign due to teams not wanting to forfeit their 1st round draft pick.  As this precedence grows more and more players will be available towards the start of spring training in the coming years. 

Top Free agents still available:

  1. Ervin Santana-SP Royals
  2. Nelson Cruz-OF Rangers *signed with Baltimore
  3. Ubaldo Jimenez-SP Indians* Signed with Baltimore
  4. Kendrys Morales-DH Mariners
  5. Bronson Arroyo-SP Reds*Signed with Arizona
  6. Paul Maholm-SP Braves* signed with LA Dodgers
  7. Stephen Drew-SS Boston

The top four players still available are tied to draft pick compensation.  Add in several additional starting pitchers who project to be 5th starters for teams who had to wait to see where Masahiro Tanaka went, and we have a battle of wills between general managers and agents.   This season will be different in that constant interleague play will affect the way some rotations and resting of players are handled.  Going by division here begins the 2014 MLB season preview!


NL West:

2013 division standings

1. Dodgers  92-70

2. Arizona   81-81

3. San Fran 76-86

4. San Diego 76-86

5. Colorado   74-88


Dodgers

The Dodgers again are the class of the division.  Their starting pitching alone makes them the favorites to win the division, but a deep and solid bullpen headlined by lefty specialist J.P Howell and former closers Brandon League and Brian Wilson shorten the game for the offense to 6 innings.  Current closer Kenley Jansen really came on during the second half last season, allowing Wilson and his beard to close the 8th inning.  Clayton Kershaw and Zach Grienke are an expensive pair atop the rotation, but a combination that can compete with anyone.  Hyun-Jin Ryu as the 3rd starter is a quality innings eater who may regress some this season as hitters learn his pitch patterns from his first season in the majors.   Dan Haren is among a group of mediocre 4/5 starters who throw innings for teams.  He went 10-14 last year throwing 170 innings and 151 strikeouts.  He signed a one year deal looking to reestablish his value for free agency next season.   Josh Beckett is coming off an injury, but at the 5th starter spot isn’t being counted on to throw 200 innings, and could be the most likely to benefit from the strong bullpen to milk a few extra wins at the end of the season.   They could use a veteran arm to play a swing role, but with a strong bullpen may take their chances that this type of player is unneeded. 

The offense is again loaded and should produce more than last year’s team with improved health from Hanley Ramirez.  The lineup will also benefit from improved health by Matt Kemp. This will allow the team to keep Andre Ethier on the bench as he is a liability against left handed pitching.  The front office signed him to a big money extension before last season as they clearly thought Yasiel Puig would not be ready anytime soon.  Fans should temper their excitement about Puig as he is a free swinger, and again as teams figure out how to pitch to him, he may see a regression in his average and on base percentage.  Carl Crawford will man left field and looks to bat leadoff again this season with no true leadoff man on the roster.  The second spot in the order may go to Matt Kemp making this a top heavy order unless 2B Cuban defector Alexander Guerrero can show he is able to get on base enough to move into the spot.  Adrian Gonzalez and Hanley Ramirez should follow in the order with Puig settling into the 5th spot to see plenty of RBI opportunities.  The rest of the lineup is serviceable with veterans Juan Uribe at 3B and A.J Ellis behind the plate. 

Again good health could mean the difference between another first round playoff exit and an extended run in October.  Don Mattingly was on the hot seat as manager early last year and went to the media in what he thought was the best way to show fans what is going on within the team.  Funny how all that nonsense gets swept under the mat when the team starts winning.  Mattingly comes into this season armed with a contract extension and a cushion on the seat instead of kindling.  The front office clearly isn’t concerned about payroll, as they are a new ownership group and are focused on giving the fans a winning product on the field.  They have a few high ceiling prospects to dangle for a long playoff run at the trade deadline- OF Joc Peterson & SP Zach Lee. 

Projected Starting Rotation:

  1. Clayton Kershaw
  2. Zach Grienke
  3. Hyun-Jin Ryu
  4. Dan Haren
  5. Josh Beckett/Paul Maholm

 

San Francisco Giants

Last season didn’t go the way the Giants thought it would.  They thought they could take the division with their roster, but inconsistent play from several regulars showed they were a long way off and struggled to finish near .500.  The strength of the team is supposed to be pitching as their home stadium is a more pitcher friendly venue.  Barry Zito’s mega deal is finally off the books, but they replaced him with 38 year old Tim Hudson, who is coming off a broken ankle.  He looks to slot into the 3rd spot of the rotation.  What the Giants really need is for Matt Cain to return to his 2012 form as last year he spent too much time throwing fastballs up in the strike zone for hitters to turn into souvenirs.  Madison Baumgarner is behind Cain but could overtake him by the summer as he is a 24 year old stud sporting a sparkling WHIP of 1.03, and a 2.77 ERA in 201 innings of work.  At the end of the rotation sits local hero Tim Lincecum and soft tossing lefty Ryan Voglesong.  At this point in their careers neither will inspire delusions of grandeur, but Lincecum quietly threw 197 innings last season.  He takes heat for losing the heat off his fastball but if he is an innings eater, and a well-paid one at that, then the front office will be happy with this return.  The bullpen has Sergio Romo at the back end to close games with Jeremy Affeldt and Santiago Castilla to bridge the gap from starter to closer. 

The offense needs bounce back seasons from a newly slimmed down Pablo Sandoval and newly acquired OF Michael Morse.  Due to the home stadium’s dimensions the team has wisely selected line drive hitters and not strict power swingers.  Hunter Pence and Buster Posey are the other returning regulars who will again be counted on to carry the load offensively.  Both are scrappy type players who bring solid bats to the park every day.  Last year, 1B Brandon Belt finally had his breakout campaign posting 17 home runs and a .289 average.  If he mirrors those numbers the front office will be content, as they have been waiting for him to find his stride since his call up two years ago. 

It seems like so long ago that the Giants won 2 of 3 World Series with manager Bruce Bochy guiding them.  Overall the team is going to ask too many players with middling talent to play like stars.  Bochy is a solid in game manager who is going to need to press the right buttons for this team to finish above .500, let alone challenge for the division.  There isn’t any immediate help in the farm system. 

Projected Starting Rotation:

  1. Madison Baumgarner
  2. Matt Cain
  3. Tim Lincecum
  4. Ryan Vogelsong
  5. Tim Hudson

 

Arizona Diamondbacks

The Diamondbacks are in a unique position in the division, they have a blood feud going with the Dodgers, and it’s difficult to predict how that will play out on the field.  Manager Kirk Gibson should use this as motivation for his players and could lead a surprise charge to a wildcard spot.  Or they could play bad defense and not hit in clutch situations and be one of the other teams fighting to stay at or above .500. 

The pitching staff lacks a true ace, and the team has been linked with some of the remaining free agent pitchers to round out their rotation.  The interesting thing is that the farm system boasts top prospect Archie Bradley, who could be up by Memorial Day and leading the rotation.  Patrick Corbin started the year on fire last season, but fell off in the second half.  There is a question of what his full potential is, although he led the team in wins, strikeouts and WHIP.  Wade Miley was an adequate back end starter, but in Arizona is being depended on for more.   Injury concerns for Brandon McCarthy as well as Trevor Cahill loom, but both should put up close to 180 innings pitched this season.  The team traded youngster Trevor Bauer to Cleveland for a less than market value haul meaning he wore out his welcome with the organization.  The bullpen is revamped with the addition of Addison Reed to close; with a suspect middle relief corps this move may not pay the dividend GM Kevin Towers hopes. 

The offense is headlined by emerging star 1B Paul Goldschmidt.  The team brought in Mark Trumbo from Anaheim to protect him in the lineup, he of the .234 average but 34 round trippers and 100 RBI.  The rest of the team doesn’t look to hit the cover off the ball so replicating those numbers may be difficult.  If the offense takes on its manager’s persona then they will be scrappy and active on the bases, creating situations where they score runs.  Martin Prado is a solid offensive player, and last year Aaron Hill enjoyed his best offensive season since his days in Toronto after returning from injury.

This franchise finished exactly at .500 last year and faces a swing year.  They could be contenders with continued improvement, or the team could fold and need to be overhauled in the offseason.   The farm system is decent with SS Chris Owings challenging incumbent Didi Gregarious, and Archie Bradley aiming to be with the big club by June. 

Projected Starting Rotation:

  1. Patrick Corbin
  2. Wade Miley
  3. Trevor Cahill
  4. Brandon McCarthy
  5. Randall Delgado

 

San Diego Padres

The Padres finished out the season on a mild positive note.  2B Jed Gyroko led the team in RBI and home runs with 63 and 23 respectively.  That says all you need to know about how much pop is in this lineup.  Carlos Quentin hasn’t been healthy in 10 years, CF Cameron Maybin played in only 14 games, and 1B Yonder Alonso suffered a hand injury that derailed him for a long portion last season.  The team also welcomes back two suspended players, C Yasmani Grandal and SS Evereth Cabrera.  This team just seems to be a year away from contending every year.  This year they look like another solid .500 team. 

The pitching staff is headed by unheralded ace Andrew Cashner who led the team in ERA and WHIP despite winning only 10 games.  The 27 year old could be looking for a breakout season in the pitcher friendly Petco Park.  The team signed injury prone but talented Josh Johnson to provide veteran leadership and innings to an otherwise inexperienced staff.  Ian Kennedy was acquired in a rare interdivision midseason trade last year.  He is another low upside innings eater.  Eric Stults led the team with 11 wins last year throwing 200+innings, which management would be thrilled if he replicated.  Tyson Ross looks to build on a solid second half as the 5th starter, but needs to stay healthy.   The rotation suffered a big blow when Corey Luebke was lost to a second Tommy John surgery early in February.   The bullpen is headlined by constant trade deadline candidate, closer Huston Street.  The rest of the bullpen is up for grabs with solid springs from a pool of home grown players. 

The lineup will depend on health and bounce back seasons from suspended players to make any kind of impact in the division.  There is some speed and youth to put one year wonder Chase Headley in RBI position.  Again health will be the main factor in whether or not the Padres are a competitive lineup this season, or if they are resigned to overplaying backups.  RF Will Venable quietly poked 22 home runs last season and had a team high OPS of .796. 

The front office is counting on progression and health from young players for improvement this season.  The Padres have a similar team philosophy as division rival San Francisco due to their home ballpark makeup.  Manager Bud Black is a former pitcher and pitching coach who will look to get the most out of the young arms.  On the farm the Padres have promising starter Matt Wisler nearly ready to eat some innings for the big club around midseason barring injury. 

Projected Starting Rotation:

  1. Andrew Cashner
  2. Josh Johnson
  3. Ian Kennedy
  4. Eric Stults
  5. Tyson Ross


Colorado Rockies

Trying to predict health is like playing the lotto, some days you hit something nice and other days you regret investing your time playing.  I’m talking about you Troy Tulowitzki and Carlos Gonzalez.  If both of these stars play 140 games each, this season suddenly looks a lot better in the mile high city.  As it is this roster needs its top prospects to season another year in the minors and next year put a serious push on the Dodgers for the division. 

The rotation, forever a sore spot due to elevation and middling talent was decent last year.  The staff wins leader was Jorge De La Rosa with 16 but his peripheral stats were fringy-more than a hit per inning, slightly above league average WHIP, suggesting he was lucky in many of his wins.  Jhoulys Chacin had a solid season throwing 197 innings and sporting a 3.47 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP while earning 14 wins.  Last year’s breakout arm was Tyler Chatwood, who may have garnered more national attention if he wasn’t hurt multiple times.  At 24 years of age and a possible full season under his belt, Chatwood could blossom into a solid contributor/#3 starter.  Management took a chance in obtaining oft injured LHP Brett Anderson from Oakland.  When healthy Anderson can be dominating as he showed for a stretch near the end of the 2012 season.   The bullpen bought lefty Boone Logan from New York to help shore up a weak unit.  Last year’s closer Rex Brothers is back to battle veteran LaTroy Hawkins for the same role. 

The lineup boasts power and average capabilities with Tulo and CarGo, last year’s NL batting average champ Michael Cuddyer, and power hitting catcher Willin Rosario.  Nolan Arenado flashed ability at 3B and needs to put together a full season of solid play.  In their home ballpark with this lineup, when fully intact, the Rockies can put crooked numbers up in a hurry.  Drew Stubbs has speed to spare, but needs to get on base to compliment his above average defensive ability in order to show he was a smart pickup by the front office. 

Second year manager Walt Weiss has tools and must find his stride as a big league manager to guide this franchise back to the post season.  Management thinks he can do it, and rewarded him with a three year extension.  The team is young at some positions and extremely aged in other spots with 1B Justin Morneau taking over for retired Todd Helton, and 34 year old OF Michael Cuddyer.  On the farm the Rockies boast two power plus arms in Jonathan Gray and Eddie Butler.  If they are in the race at the All Star break look for both to get call ups to the big club.  As is, the roster looks like the weakest in the division, not by much, but then again two games separated the bottom three teams in the division last year. 

Projected Starting Rotation:

  1. Jorge De La Rosa
  2. Jhoulys Chacin
  3. Tyler Chatwood
  4. Brett Anderson
  5. Juan Nicasio/Jonathan Gray

(Next: AL West)