With 8 days to go before the Buffalo Bills are on the clock, here is our first attempt at predicting Round 1 of the 2014 NFL Draft. Check back before the draft for more mocks!

This mock draft will look at the picks as in a typical mock and then give a bust factor of high, low or moderate showing how likely the player is to fail at the next level. There’s always risk involved with drafting kids whether it’s off the field issues or being asked to play out of their natural position. A bust pick can put a rebuilding franchise back two-four years depending on the missed position. There is no scientific method to determine busts or teams would hit on all their picks.

Round 1

1) Houston Texans- Jadaveon Clowney DE- South Carolina
Best player in the draft will go first even if Houston trades out of the spot.
Bust factor: Low

2) St. Louis Rams (from Washington)- Greg Robinson OT- Auburn
Reaping the benefits of the RGIII trade, the Rams get their franchise left tackle who will help keep Sam Bradford upright.
Bust factor: Low

3) Jacksonville Jaguars- Khalil Mack LB- Buffalo
In an effort to completely rebuild the franchise the Jags get a defensive playmaker on the outside to play next to steady inside player Paul Posluszny.
Bust factor: Moderate due to lack of big game experience.

4) Cleveland Browns- Sammy Watkins WR- Clemson
Why reach in terms of value at #4 overall for a QB when a difference maker is available? I don’t think the new regime will be able to pass up a duo of Watkins & Josh Gordon on the outside.
Bust factor: Low

5) Oakland Raiders- Jake Matthews OT- Texas A&M
This is a trade back spot as the rebuild in Oakland needs to continue. If Watkins falls to this spot GM Reggie McKenzie will have no shortage of suitors for this pick. As it is, Matthews is the safest pick left on the board and Oakland needs sure things at this point of the rebuild.
Bust factor: High. Only because he could struggle outside and be moved to guard. Guards aren’t drafted in the top 5.

6) Atlanta Falcons- Taylor Lewan OT- Michigan
The Falcons aren’t afraid to make a move as evidenced by the Julio Jones trade a few years back. They need an edge rusher in the worst way, but also need help on the other side of the ball. Lewan can push starter Sam Baker or just slide in at RT to help solidify the line.
Bust factor: Low. Rumored to have been the first pick in last year’s draft.

7) Tampa Bay Buccaneers- Mike Evans WR- Texas A&M
The Bucs would essentially be trading Evans for deposed WR Mike Williams in this scenario, but after Vincent Jackson Tampa doesn’t have much in terms of offensive weapons not coming out of the backfield.
Bust factor: High. He has the athletic ability but there are questions about his drive and love for the game.

8) Minnesota Vikings- Justin Gilbert CB- Oklahoma State
They need a QB but again the value doesn’t match up with the spot. This is a team that could use many things and following the best player available on their board mantra would fit. I don’t know if that player is Gilbert but they need a CB.
Bust factor: High. arguably the best CB but a reach in terms of value for a #8 overall.

9) Buffalo Bills- Eric Ebron TE- North Carolina
The Bills love Ebron’s athleticism as evidenced by their draft luncheon, and if the draft goes this way there is a match here. The more QB’s taken in the first 8 picks the happier the front office will be with more talent pushed back to them. Many mocks have the Bills taking a tackle but that won’t put points on the board and teams don’t game plan around a RT. Ebron is a difference maker for sophomore QB E.J Manuel.
Bust factor: Moderate. He could be a Pro Bowler or a slow possession type WR.

10) Detroit Lions- Ha Ha Clinton-Dix S- Alabama
It seems like the last five years the Lions top need is a CB, but they never take one in the first round. They also have a need at the safety position as they cut ties with Louis Delmas. The Alabama safety is fire tested and a ball hawk that plays a center field and reads the QB to make plays.
Bust factor: Moderate. Can be fooled by elite QB and double moves.

11) Tennessee Titans- Darqueze Dennard CB- Michigan State
The Titans might go out of the box and select a QB as it doesn’t look like Jake Locker is the answer in Tennessee, but there are other more pressing needs on this roster. With the loss of Alterraun Verner in free agency, Dennard makes sense here.
Bust factor: Low

12) New York Giants- Aaron Donald DT- Pittsburgh
The Giants defense is in a transition phase. I’m sure Eli Manning would love to see Ebron fall to them and open up the offense, but Donald fits a need along the line and is a solid 3 technique tackle that can shore up an aging and depleted front four.
Bust factor: Moderate. 3 technique guys aren’t overpowering and can thus be engulfed by bigger O linemen.

13) St. Louis Rams- Calvin Pryor S- Louisville
Shoring up the O Line with the 2nd overall pick, the Rams can focus on the other side of the ball. With a young and athletic front 7 capable of getting after the QB, the Rams can add a run stuffing safety to keep teams honest and help ILB James Laurenitis.
Bust factor: Low

14) Chicago Bears- Ryan Shazier OLB- Ohio State
I’m sure the front office would love to see Aaron Donald fall to them to help replace Henry Melton along the D line. As it is here, they can put a playmaker next to their two 2nd year linebackers and eventual replacement for veteran Lance Briggs.
Bust factor: High. Shazier isn’t elite in terms of athleticism.

15) Pittsburgh Steelers- Zach Martin OT- Notre Dame
The Steelers tried to address the O line two years ago but Mike Adams can’t play. They have been patching together lines since, dodging injuries and ineffectiveness. Martin helps solidify the line and allow Big Ben to stay in the pocket with more comfort. D line is also a consideration here.
Bust factor: Moderate. See above about Adams.

16) Dallas Cowboys- CJ Mosley ILB- Alabama
With the loss of Demarcus Ware the Cowboys need help on the outside, but the attempted transition to a 4-3 front last year failed and the team will need another linebacker to pair with Sean Lee to help offset the Ware loss.
Bust factor: Moderate. Injuries are the only concern.

17) Baltimore Ravens- Anthony Barr OLB- UCLA
Early in the draft evaluation process Barr was talked about as a top 10 pick. After lackluster combine and pro day workouts GM’s should be worried about his ceiling. Ozzie Newsome is very adept at trading back and still hitting on his picks if he doesn’t like how the draft falls. This could be one of those situations.
Bust factor: High. Stats and tape don’t match on him which has lowered his draft stock since combine.

18) New York Jets- Odell Beckham Jr. WR- LSU
The Jets should be looking to draft the best offensive playmaker available. They have their choice in this scenario of Cooks, Lee, Benjamin or Beckham Jr. With a young QB or Mike Vick starting this team will need a possession/slot receiver more than a downfield threat, and since they have Stephen Hill on the roster already Beckham Jr. fits.
Bust factor: Moderate. Receivers usually take two years to mature into the NFL game.

19) Miami Dolphins- Cyrus Kouandjo OT- Alabama
We all know about the Dolphin’s line woes last season. They moved quickly to nab LT Brandon Albert, but still need two more starters and curiously haven’t picked up C Mike Pouncey’s 5th year option yet. Kouandjo is a bit of a reach here in terms of value but the need is there and he would likely start opening day.
Bust factor: High. Kouandjo faced elite college talent each week and also every day in practice but he needs to square up his technique to handle NFL rushers.

20) Arizona Cardinals- Blake Bortles QB- UCF
The first QB off the board and to a situation where the starter is 35 and has an injury history. He can comfortably slide into a backup role and if by midseason the team is not in contention go ahead and put him in the lineup. The team has offensive weapons to utilize and Bortles has the accuracy to make Larry Fitzgerald and Malcolm Floyd dangerous again.
Bust factor: High. A first round QB will have expectations and if he is taken here he could sit half the year and learn, but teams and fans expect so much out of 1st round QB’s that the burn out rate is astronomical.

21) Green Bay Packers- Marquise Lee WR- USC
The Pack lost 3rd receiver James Jones this off season and Lee would fill that loss nicely. There are other holes but when your team is built around Aaron Rodgers you keep feeding him weapons. They could use a tight end but with none valued this high WR is the next best option.
Bust factor: Low. In this case Lee needs to polish his route running but with Rodgers throwing him the ball every day in practice it’s more likely to happen than not.

22) Philadelphia Eagles- Brandin Cooks WR- Oregon State
No Desean Jackson, no problem. Cooks is a speedster who can immediately step in and fill that role on this team. This is a wildcard team both literally and figuratively as Chip Kelly may decide he wants to hitch his wagon to Johnny Manziel or another QB of his choosing, as incumbent Nick Foles is a holdover from previous regime.
Bust factor: Moderate. A speed receiver joining Chip Kelly’s offense? As long as his hands are solid he will run away from defenses.

23) Kansas City Chiefs- Stephon Tuitt DE- Notre Dame
The Chiefs D was stout last year, one of the big reasons they went to the playoffs. Free agency has sapped the line of some depth so he fills a need even though this is a bit high for Tuitt. He is a versatile linemen who can take on blockers in a 3-4 scheme that the Chiefs utilize. WR could also be an option.
Bust factor: High. Rotational linemen aren’t usually difference makers but could develop into them.

24) Cincinnati Bengals- Timmy Jernigan DT- Florida State
Pro Bowler Geno Atkins is coming off a torn ACL, and Jernigan is more than insurance as he is athletic enough to cause some havoc in the offensive backfield. CB is another option but with Atkins coming off the injury, a solid pass rush can cover for a depleted secondary.
Bust factor: Low.

25) San Diego Chargers- Jason Verrett CB- TCU
This pick fits a need for the Bolts and they will be thrilled if the board falls this way. Already a playoff team last year, shoring up a weaker D while Phillip Rivers is still in his prime is priority.
Bust factor: Moderate. Not the biggest corner to compete with Denver’s WR corps.

26) Cleveland Browns (from Indianapolis)- Johnny Manziel QB- Texas A&M
Having already taken Watkins at #4 the new front office nearly has their pick of the QB crop to get the ball to these playmakers. Picking Manziel would create excitement around the team and franchise, but would also task 1st year head coach Mike Pettine with tailoring an offense around Johnny’s skills and not trying to change what he does well.
Bust factor: High. Obviously has strengths, but do they translate to the NFL and does his coordinator create plays that he can be successful at?

27) New Orleans Saints- Kyle Fuller CB- Virginia Tech
Fuller is solid value at #27 and fills a need even though the team signed safety Jairus Byrd from Buffalo. Free agency and trading RB Darren Sproles depleted the offensive skill position depth so that may be an option here as well, but Drew Brees tends to elevate the play of his receivers and the team may feel the value is better for the team to select Fuller.
Bust factor: Low. With Byrd and Kenny Vaccaro in the defensive backfield and Rod Ryan calling the D Fuller is in a great spot to succeed.

28) Carolina Panthers- Kelvin Benjamin WR- Florida State
The Panthers should have their card at the podium with this pick as soon as the commissioner announces the Saints pick. This is a weapon for Cam Newton to use in the same mold as TE Greg Olsen, a big physical pass catcher who when Newton improvises is able to win a jump ball situation. A true Red Zone nightmare for opposing defensive coordinators.
Bust factor: Moderate. He needs to be more consistent catching the ball.

29) New England Patriots- Louis Nix III DT- Notre Dame
Nix would be ideal here for the Pats as Vince Wilfork is coming off a knee injury and some uncertainty around his contract situation. He could learn for a year while rotating in to spell Wilfork and would anchor the line just as big Vince has for the last several years.
Bust factor: High. He could eat himself out of the league, also questions about his motivation.

30) San Francisco 49ers- Bradley Roby CB- Ohio State
Recent arrest may have pushed him out of the 1st round, but he is talented and has the ceiling of a solid starting CB in NFL and he fills a need. The front office may look to trade up for a big receiver or whomever they value as the top CB, but in this scenario they don’t need to move to get one.
Bust factor: High. Off the field arrest two weeks before draft is a red flag for GM’s.

31) Denver Broncos- Gabe Jackson G- Mississippi State
This is difficult as the Broncos need to draft players who will fit into what they do as Peyton Manning and the team’s window has only a year or two left. Denver lost Zane Beadles in free agency and has not replaced him. If they feel more comfortable with shifting C Manny Ramirez to guard they could select USC C Marcus Martin.
Bust factor: High. Not valued at this spot but drafting to fill needs can get a GM into trouble long term.

32) Seattle Seahawks- Ra’Shede Hageman DT- Minnesota
The Seahawks lost some depth along the D line in free agency so this pick should help replenish that depth. They could use help along the offensive line as well as they lost their RT in free agency, but at this point there is no value to be had.
Bust factor: Low. Not a lot of pressure on the final pick of the first round going to the Super Bowl champions.

Top remaining prospects that could sneak into the first round based on need/value:
Teddy Bridgewater QB- Louisville
Derrick Carr QB- Fresno State
Cody Latimer WR- Indiana
Chris Borland ILB- Wisconsin
Dee Ford DE- Auburn

Options for Bills 2nd pick at #41:
G Xavier Su'a-Filo, UCLA- He would fill a need and start from day one at LG
TE Austin Seferian-Jenkins, Washington- If Ebron isn’t the pick at #9 this guy is an athlete who can run by most linebackers but was hurt at the combine so scouts didn’t see his ability or we would be talking about him as a late first round pick.
DE Kony Ealy, Missouri- If new D coordinator Jim Schwartz tries to switch back to a 4-3 defensive front the DE spot opposite Mario Williams needs to be addressed.
OLB Jerry Attaochu, Georgia Tech- Pass rush specialist, could add some weight and be the next Aaron Schobel as a DE.

Options for Bills 3rd pick at #73
WR Brandon Coleman, Rutgers- Big bodied receiver who should be a red zone weapon and would make fans happy, could be a steal if he works out.
OT Jack Mewhort, Ohio State- An appealing blue collar RT prospect has experience but isn’t a mauler in the run game.
S Terrence Brooks, Florida State- Lost Jairus Byrd in free agency and may need to pick up some depth for the position.
G Brandon Thomas, Clemson- Underclassmen who could grow into a solid starter for Buffalo after career against solid competition in the ACC.